How do you solve a problem like Estrada?

JOSEPH “ERAP” ESTRADA ANNOUNCED HIS presidential bid at a huge rally in teeming Tondo, Manila last Oct. 21. Carrying the banner of “Tapat sa Mahirap, Samahang Tunay,” the former president also proclaimed his teammate, Makati’s unsinkable Mayor Jojo Binay, and his senatorial slate led by Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile.
No legal significance. Despite the genuine “Erap! Erap! Erap!” chants and the vintage political swagger, the muscle flexing evoked no legal effects. But once he formally files his certificate of candidacy (COC) in the Commission on Elections, his political adversaries will feast on him. He will probably file his COC on Nov. 30, the Comelec-decreed deadline. A filing on an earlier date would subject him to the ban on premature campaigning, per Penera vs Comelec (Sept. 11, 2009).
The expected petitions against his eligibility will likely allege that (1) President Macapagal-Arroyo’s pardon for his conviction for plunder did not include his disqualification to hold any public office, and (2) the Constitution bans all former presidents from occupying again the presidency.
On the first point, I opined in my Nov. 18, 2007 column that the presidential clemency extended to Erap was absolute and unconditional; it erased both the principal penalty of imprisonment and the accessory penalty of electoral disqualification. A condition retaining an accessory imposes a burden; hence, it should have been couched in clear language. However, the pardon did not contain any clear burdens. Quite the contrary, it expressly “restored his civil and political rights.”
Reelection ban. The second point is more contentious. The Constitution says, “The President shall not be eligible for any reelection. No person who has succeeded as President and has served as such for more than four years shall be qualified for election to the same office at any time.”
Many legal scholars say that the plain words “any reelection” should be understood plainly: elected presidents can never ever run again for the eligibility suits, which would initially be heard by a division of the Comelec. The division’s decision (whichever way it goes) could be elevated to the Comelec En Banc. Finally, the Banc’s judgment could be raised to the Supreme Court.
Meantime, Estrada’s COC would spawn administrative problems. The first of these is whether the Comelec should print Estrada’s name on the automated ballots while his eligibility case is pending. The printing deadline is Jan. 9. The eligibility suit will probably last beyond that deadline. Note that under the automated system, voters do not write the names of the candidates on the ballots; they merely shade the ovals opposite the candidates’ printed names. If his name is not printed, he could not be voted regardless of the verdict on his case.
If Erap were finally declared ineligible, would the machines still count his votes? What would happen if he gets the highest number of votes among the presidential bets? Can he still be substituted after he is judicially declared ineligible?
On the other hand, if Erap withdraws his candidacy before his eligibility is decided, can Binay—his teammate—substitute for him? Due to lack of time, Binay’s name could no longer be printed on the space for presidential candidates. Will the votes cast for Binay for vice president be counted for his presidential bid? Will the ovals shaded for Erap be counted in favor of Binay? Suppose his substitute bears his surname, like Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, will Erap’s votes be counted in favor of Jinggoy?
To the Comelec: How do you solve a problem like Estrada? To continue the enigma of the “Sound of Music,” how do you hold a moonbeam in your hands? I trust that the Comelec will post its answers to these questions (raised by readers) on the ehope2010.ph website, which Commissioner Rene V. Sarmiento said, will open on Oct. 28.

Ousted Filipino leader announces election bid

MANILA, Philippines – Ousted leader Joseph Estrada, convicted of plunder and later pardoned, said Wednesday he wants to run in next year's elections despite legal challenges and immediate objections to the idea of his political comeback.

"This will be the final, final performance of my life," Estrada told The Associated Press. "I should not fail the Filipino people in this next chapter."

Estrada said he would formally announce his plans later Wednesday in Manila's slums _ the base of legions of his supporters who propelled him to movie stardom, then to political power.

A return to politics would mark a new episode in Estrada's checkered life, which many say has been as colorful as his B-movies.

The 72-old-year stepped down amid massive anti-corruption protests in 2001 after serving only half of his six-year term. He was convicted of economic plunder in September 2007 but was immediately granted a pardon by his successor and political nemesis, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Rivals are expected to challenge his candidacy before the Supreme Court and invoke a constitutional ban on a second term for any president.

A study by his legal team, Estrada said, indicated he was not covered by the ban because he was illegally forced from power. Arroyo, who was elected vice president separately, helped lead the military-backed protests, then succeeded him.

"I was demonized then unconstitutionally removed," Estrada said.

Albert Lim, spokesman of the Makati Business Club, a prestigious group of the country's top business executives, said Estrada's poor record as president and his criminal conviction should be enough reasons for him not to run again.

"Going by his track record, why should anyone think that he'll be a good president?" Lim asked. "He won't be good for business."

Despite his ouster, conviction and detention, Estrada steadfastly denied the charges of plundering Philippine coffers through kickbacks and illegal gambling payoffs. He never parted with a visible symbol of his power _ his trademark wristband with the presidential seal, which he intended to wear in a major public rally in his power base _ Manila's Tondo slum district.

"During the lowest point in my life, the poor did not abandon me," he said. "I'll announce my candidacy in their midst and I won't fail them this time."

Estrada rose to movie stardom in his early 20s, playing tough guys with a soft spot for the needy _ roles that earned him the hearts of the masses that make up almost half of the population. In the 1970s, he won five best actor awards in the Philippines' version of the Oscars.

Estrada entered politics in 1969 with his election as mayor of Manila's San Juan suburb, a post he kept for 17 years. He was elected senator in 1987, then vice president in 1992 despite a life of boozing, gambling and womanizing _ foibles that humanized and endeared him to ordinary Filipinos but disturbed the influential Roman Catholic Church and the business community.

He has acknowledged fathering children with several women other than his wife.

He banked on his macho, Filipino everyman charisma and a pro-poor platform in the impoverished Asian nation of 90 million people to win the presidency in 1998 with one of the largest margins in recent memory.